The MXGP World Championship has been thrown wide open after a rollercoaster week of news surrounding Tim Gajser. At the start of the week, it looked like the Slovenian would line up in Portugal despite a brutal crash in Switzerland. However, by Thursday it was confirmed that Gajser will not be racing this weekend after all—leaving the title race hanging in the balance.
Gajser currently holds a 27-point lead over Romain Febvre in the championship standings. With 60 points up for grabs during a Grand Prix weekend, Febvre has a real opportunity to take over the red plate. However, Gajser can’t be further than 33 points behind after the weekend and that would only be the case if Febvre goes 1-1-1 in Portugal but that could be unlikely, especially looking at the weather forecast. A mudder could very well throw a spanner in the works and keep things unpredictable.
If Gajser only misses Portugal and returns in Lugo for round eight, he’ll still back himself—especially if his body is relatively healthy. There are still 13 rounds to go after Portugal, meaning 26 motos and 13 qualifying races remain on the calendar. That’s 780 points still on offer. As we saw in Switzerland, one moment can change everything.
Febvre, who won in the sand of Riola earlier this season, will be looking to send a strong message in Gajser’s absence. But he’s not the only one to watch.
Rookie sensation Lucas Coenen made history in Switzerland by becoming the youngest-ever overall winner in the MXGP class. Despite not yet holding an EMX or World Championship title—largely because he’s never stayed in one class for long—Coenen has shown he’s the real deal. Had he stayed in MX2 this season, there’s little doubt he would have been one of the title favourites. Instead, the Belgian opted to jump to the 450cc and has been steadily adapting. His ride in Switzerland, on a gnarly, technical track, was nothing short of impressive.
Currently sitting 78 points behind Gajser and 51 behind Febvre, Coenen won’t be walking away from Portugal with the red plate. But if he can outperform Febvre again, the gap could shrink dramatically. Before Switzerland, few would have given Coenen a shot at the title. Now? He’s a dark horse—and when he figures out how to win, history suggests he’s tough to stop. That said, he’s still just 18 and in his rookie season. Staying smooth and composed, like he did in Switzerland, will be key. The 450cc bike demands respect, and pushing over the limit can come at a cost, no matter who you are.
Another rider to keep an eye on is Glenn Coldenhoff, who sits just three points behind Coenen. The Dutchman has been incredibly consistent this year aboard his Fantic and is enjoying his best-ever start to an MXGP season. With a string of podiums already under his belt, Coldenhoff will be desperate to convert that into a GP win. If the forecasted rain arrives, don’t count him out as soon as this weekend—he thrives in the mud.
Meanwhile, Maxime Renaux’s season has taken an unfortunate turn. After a brilliant win in Argentina and holding the red plate for round two, injuries have plagued his campaign. A hand issue followed by a hip injury means it’ll make things incredibly difficult but despite Yamaha providing an update yesterday he’d miss the next two GP’s but in a late twist he has travelled and has got permission to race in Portugal this weekend! There’s no doubt that once healthy, expect him to be a race winner again.
And let’s not forget Jeffrey Herlings. The multi-time champ has been steadily improving and could soon be back in the mix for wins. As his form builds, he’s bound to add even more unpredictability to an already wide-open season.
All eyes now turn to Portugal—and then Lugo the week after, where we hope to see Tim Gajser back on the gate. One thing’s for sure: this MXGP season is far from over, and the championship battle could be shaping up nicely.
Current standings heading to Portugal:
